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Fecha: 30 de octubre de 2024 11:00

Seminario "Long run booms and busts in commodity markets: New estimates", Fredrik NG Andersson (Lund University)

 

Sala de Reuniones del Departamento de Economía. Edificio Los Madroños, 2ª planta (ECON-2026)

Abstract: Global commodity markets are characterized by booms and busts. Not just in the short-run but also in the long-run. In this paper, we estimate the time points at which significant shifts occur in the long-run commodity market equilibrium, using data for 47 commodities from 1850 to 2021. Our findings reveal that, on average, each commodity experienced one significant increase in the equilibrium price (booms) and two significant declines in the market equilibrium (busts) during the sample period. Both booms and busts tend to cluster around major global events, such as financial crises and wars. Outside of these events, long-run real commodity markets remain relatively stable. We find no evidence of any long-run cycles in commodity prices.