Universidad Pública de Navarra - Nafarroako Univertsitate Publikoa

Contents

The aim of this subject is that the student learns:

• to consider an economic problem in statistical terms,

• to solve manually and by means of the statistical program R-commander and

• to correctly interpret the results.

This course is devoted to studying:
• Calculus of probabilities and the main distributions of probability
• Statistical inference.

The content of the subject has been divided in the following chapters:

CHAPTER 1. Probability
CHAPTER 2. Discrete random variables and probability distributions
CHAPTER 3. Continuous random variables and probability distributions
CHAPTER 4. Introduction to Statistical inference and Sampling
CHAPTER 5. Estimation
CHAPTER 6. Hypothesis testing.
CHAPTER 7. Nonparametric statistics.

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Descriptors

Statistical inference as a tool of making decision in Economy and Business. Basic concepts of probability. Discrete and continuous probability distributions. Introduction to sampling and sampling distributions. Estimate from sample data. Tests of hypotheses for the population parameters. Estimation and contrast for two populations. Nonparametric methods. Application to real data of interest in Economy and Business through a computer program.

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General proficiencies

A) General competencies:
a1) Make use of information and communication technologies
a2) Oral and written communication skills and team work.

B) Specific competencies:
b1) Obtain from the data relevant information that is impossible to recognize for non-professional
b2) Analyze problems with professional criteria based on the management of technical instruments
b3) Give rationality to the analysis and description of any aspect of the economic reality
b4) Evaluate the consequences of different actions and select the best ones according to the objectives

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Specific proficiencies

C) Course competencies:
c1) Learn the basics of the calculus of probabilities and distributions of wider application in economics and business administration
c2) Recognize the randomness and choose the most suitable probabilistic model for every situation
c3) Understand the inference techniques and their possibilities in obtaining information and decision making
c4) Analyze statistical problems through the use of a computer program
c5) Develop critical ability in reading external reports
c6) Be able to raise economic problems in statistical terms
c7) Develop efficient work habits

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Methodology

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Evaluation

Continuous evaluation represents up to 30% of the rating of the course. In this method of evaluation, activities are included as:
• exercises at the computer sessions and exams with the computer
• exercises solved in class
• partial tests
• tutorials to assess the individual follow-up of the student

Final exam represents a minimum of 70 % of the final qualification. It will be a written exam with:
 questions on theoretical and practical aspects of the subject and
 problems to be solved and whose results must be interpreted.

Tests for the continuous evaluation are not recoverable. The exam of recovery is for students who have tried without success to overcome the subject along the semester, taking part in the different activities of evaluation including the final exam and scoring at least 3 points out of 10 in both the continuous evaluation and the final exam. The recovery exam will consist of an exam of the same characteristics that the final exam. It will be valued by a maximum of 7 points.

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Agenda

CHAPTER 1. Probability

- Basic terminology of probability
- Probability Rules
- Conditional probability and independence
- Bayes' Theorem


CHAPTER 2. Discrete random variables and probability distributions

- Discrete random variables
- Probability distributions for discrete random variables
- Characteristics of discrete random variable. expectancy and variance
- Binary and Binomial distribution
- The Poisson Probability distribution
- Other distributions

CHAPTER 3. Continuous random variables and probability distributions

- Continuous random variables
- Probability distributions for continuous random variables
- Characteristics of continuous random variable. expectancy and variance
- The Normal distribution
- Normal distribution approximation for Binomial and the Poisson distributions
- Other distributions

CHAPTER 4. Introduction to Statistical inference and Sampling

- Statistical inference as a tool of decision making
- Concepts of sampling
- Sampling with replacement and sampling in finite populations
- Main sampling distributions: sample mean and sample proportion

CHAPTER 5. Estimation
- Point estimation
- Desirable properties of an estimator
- Confidence interval estimation: confidence level and error margin
- Confidence interval estimation for a single population
- Confidence interval estimation for two populations.
- Sample size determination
- Estimations using a statistical software

CHAPTER 6. Hypothesis testing.

- Concepts of hypothesis testing
- Parametric tests for a single population
- Parametric tests for two populations
- Hypothesis testing using a statistical software
 

CHAPTER 7. Nonparametric statistics.

- Introduction to nonparametric methods
- Goodness-of-fit tests
- Independence test
- Wilcoxon signed rank fest
-Mann-Whitney U test
- Nonparametric hypothesis testing using a statistical software

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Bibliography

Access the bibliography that your professor has requested from the Library.

Basic text
Newbold, P, Carlson, W.L. y Thorne, B. (2007). Statistics for Business and Economics. 6th Edition. Editorial Prentice Hall.
Newbold, P, Carlson, W.L. y Thorne, B. (2008). Estadística para Administración y Economía. Editorial Prentice Hall.

Mi Aulario will be the course web page providing also a communication channel between instructor and students. There students will find the necessary material for both theorical and computer lab sessions, together with data files and any other additional material.

Complementary bibliography:
Levin, Rubin, Balderas, Del Valle y Gómez (2004) Estadística para la administración y la economía. Editorial Prentice Hall.
Lind D.A., Marchal W.G. y Wathen S.A. (2008) Estadística Aplicada a los negocios y a la Economía. Editorial McGraw – Hill

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Languages

English

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